Office for National Statistics (ONS) data shows that inflation hit 3.8% in July, with this putting price growth at the highest level since January 2024. The figure from July is up from the 3.6% growth recorded in the year to June and far exceeds the Bank of England’s target of 2%. Economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast that inflation would hit 3.7% in the year to July. The Bank expects inflation to peak at 4% in September. Reflecting on the ONS data, Chancellor Rachel Reeves said the Government has “taken the decisions needed to stabilise the public finances, and we’re a long way from the double-digit inflation we saw under the previous government.” Shadow Chancellor Mel Stride commented: “Labour’s choices to tax jobs and ramp up borrowing are pushing up costs and stoking inflation.” Suren Thiru, economics director at ICAEW, said: “July’s outturn probably extinguishes hope of a September interest rate cut.” Thomas Pugh, chief economist at RSM UK, commented: “There is a genuine risk of some higher inflation becoming baked into the system.” Meanwhile, Eurostat data shows that eurozone inflation held at 2% in July. This means the gap between UK and eurozone inflation is now at its widest since September 2023.
Inflation hits 3.8% in July
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